Listening to the media over the recent days and weeks one would have thought the Republican GOP front runner was the inevitable pick for the nomination.
Many commentators marvel at the small amounts he spends on campaigning compared to candidates like former presidential candidate Jeb Bush. This is hardly surprising given the huge, or should I say yuge, wall to wall coverage for the front runner. Even in direct interviews he is afforded sometimes 10-15 minutes whereas other candidates are lucky to secure 5 minutes. There has never been a clearer attempt at a self fulfilling prophecy.
The contrast I would draw with Marco Rubio, is the performance of both leading up to each primary. Whereas Rubio has outperformed expectations in the palmetto state South Carolina. Trump under performed, yes he won, but given many polls showed 15-22% leads, narrowing slightly to an RCP average of 13%, ultimately he won by 10% points. There is an argument to be made that whilst impressive wins, that Trump’s support has a ceiling. It is worth noting that a Fox News Poll in December gave him 35%, whilst a poll close to the primary gave 32%. The significance that Trump has not benefited from nearly a dozen candidates dropping out cannot be underestimated.
This conjecture is further supported by his unfavourable ratings increasing month on month for Trump, now standing at 40% of GOP voters stating they would refuse to support him.
Undoubtedly this will benefit lead candidates like Rubio and Cruz and mainly the former being the beneficiary. It is likely that much of Jeb Bush’s support will shift over to Rubio and provide for a close three candidate election battle.
That said, Rubio will now have to deliver on his promise and start winning primary contests. After all by mid March over half the delegates for the GOP convention will have been awarded.
Already the start in Nevada is promising, with Senator Dean Heller providing an endorsement and the Actor Donnie Wahlberg adding some Hollywood sparkle (who will be joining Rubio on the campaign trail). The candidate also spent part of his childhood in the state. He will be further helped with the last remaining establishment candidate, John Kasich likely to focus his efforts in Michigan.
Marco Rubio has an appealing message of bringing together and expanding the Conservative base. It was noticeable that the media images of Marco Rubio campaigning with Governor Nikki Haley and Senator Tim Scott felt like the next generation of Republican’s is emerging with Jeb Bush and others retiring from the field.
I saw Rubio speak at a dinner in Washington 5 years ago, he appeared to be the future and I still stand by that assessment. One thing is for certain, the race for the GOP nomination is far from over.
