Cllr James Hockney LLB (Hons)

Close elections can be won and lost in the final week depending on which candidate has the stronger finish.

But I hear you cry: Clinton spent more, had bigger names and celebrities supporting the campaign.

Let me explain. Electors want to see a candidate working hard and a campaign that is not complacent. So we need to examine this in several parts:

The Candidate: Donald Trump in the final week was crisscrossing states with four to six appearances a day. Hilary Clinton was making one or two appearances. Trump raised this by mocking Clinton making a speech ‘and then taking a nap’.

Naming your opponent: The cardinal rule is you do not name your opponent, yet the
Clinton campaign did this throughout the campaign including the branded slogan ‘Love Trumps Hate’. Never give your opponent the oxygen of publicity. This gives your opponent a greater focus in electors minds whilst detracting from your campaigns closing messages.

Closing Messages: At the end of the campaign you want to relentlessly push a few key messages. Trump really pushed controlling immigration (the wall) and bringing back jobs (reducing business taxes / changing NAFTA). Clintons message was mainly naming her opponent as I covered above.

Creating an urgency to vote: Watching the left wing political pundits in the media and many associated with the Clinton campaign gave the impression that they were going to win, did you hear the constant references to Trumps ‘narrow path’ ‘mountain to climb’. This may have lulled Democrat voters into a false sense of security. Whilst Trump said in his speeches ‘you’ve gotta go vote’ ‘this could be your last chance’.

Focus on the candidate: Clinton had many celebrities supporting her. On the face of this, that sounded good. However it was problematic for two reasons. One the media coverage focused on the celebrities rather than theandidate. Second it detracted from the candidate and the message.

The combination of these factors meant that Trump won against the prevailing expectation in the media and of opinion polls.

This election is not Top Trumps, it is not a game or a media ratings battle. It is about electing one of the most powerful people in the World.

Simply Donald Trump is not fit to be the next President of the United States of America.

Over the last two weeks we have seen two conventions. The Republican Convention, a picture of disunity and splits. The last four Republican Presidential candidates, including two former Presidents stayed away. The home Governor John Kasich stayed away. The leading contender, Sen Ted Cruz, during his speech failed to endorse Trump.

At the Democratic Convention all the leading party figures including President Obama, Vice President Joe Biden and main contender Bernie Sanders endorsed and rallied around Secretary Clinton. It was a display of an enthused party, well organised and hopeful for the future.

So as a Conservative, it was sad to see the great Republican Party, where it is now after a hostile takeover. The party of Reagan and Lincoln is now lead by a demagogue.

For my fellow UK readers the result of the USA election is of enormous importance. On one side we have a candidate who supports Nafta and Nato, the other does not. These two organisations are crucial to the UK – one helps to provide protection and peace, the other a vital trade opportunity in our post Brexit era.

We also need a person who will respect the special relationship between the USA and UK. Does Donald Trump? I doubt it. He already has insulted our
Government and our Country.

A divider in chief who has insulted many groups and people is not fit for the highest office.

To be clear I am no great fan of Secretary Clinton.The many issues including the emails and handling of Benghazi are a real concern.

However having someone competent and ready to serve over rides party politics.

I morally supported Bush, McCain and Romney. I even spent time on the McCain campaign on election day in Florida. So for me to go against our opposite number in the United States is not an easy one, but it is the right one. There are many great Conservatives down the ticket who will be elected; but I cannot and will not support the top of the ticket.

Donald Trump is not a fit choice for the United States nor for the global stage.

If you can for one moment imagine a President Trump, if that does not scare you, it should.

Listening to the media over the recent days and weeks one would have thought the Republican GOP front runner was the inevitable pick for the nomination.

Many commentators marvel at the small amounts he spends on campaigning compared to candidates like former presidential candidate Jeb Bush. This is hardly surprising given the huge, or should I say yuge, wall to wall coverage for the front runner. Even in direct interviews he is afforded sometimes 10-15 minutes whereas other candidates are lucky to secure 5 minutes. There has never been a clearer attempt at a self fulfilling prophecy.

The contrast I would draw with Marco Rubio, is the performance of both leading up to each primary. Whereas Rubio has outperformed expectations in the palmetto state South Carolina. Trump under performed, yes he won, but given many polls showed 15-22% leads, narrowing slightly to an RCP average of 13%, ultimately he won by 10% points. There is an argument to be made that whilst impressive wins, that Trump’s support has a ceiling. It is worth noting that a Fox News Poll in December gave him 35%, whilst a poll close to the primary gave 32%. The significance that Trump has not benefited from nearly a dozen candidates dropping out cannot be underestimated.

This conjecture is further supported by his unfavourable ratings increasing month on month for Trump, now standing at 40% of GOP voters stating they would refuse to support him.

Undoubtedly this will benefit lead candidates like Rubio and Cruz and mainly the former being the beneficiary. It is likely that much of Jeb Bush’s support will shift over to Rubio and provide for a close three candidate election battle.

That said, Rubio will now have to deliver on his promise and start winning primary contests. After all by mid March over half the delegates for the GOP convention will have been awarded.

Already the start in Nevada is promising, with Senator Dean Heller providing an endorsement and the Actor Donnie Wahlberg adding some Hollywood sparkle (who will be joining Rubio on the campaign trail). The candidate also spent part of his childhood in the state. He will be further helped with the last remaining establishment candidate, John Kasich likely to focus his efforts in Michigan.

Marco Rubio has an appealing message of bringing together and expanding the Conservative base. It was noticeable that the media images of Marco Rubio campaigning with Governor Nikki Haley and Senator Tim Scott felt like the next generation of Republican’s is emerging with Jeb Bush and others retiring from the field.

I saw Rubio speak at a dinner in Washington 5 years ago, he appeared to be the future and I still stand by that assessment. One thing is for certain, the race for the GOP nomination is far from over.